Pakuranga Heights · lowered 26 January 2023, raised again 17 March 2025
Before
60 km/h
until 26 January 2023
Lower limit
50 km/h
26 January 2023 to 17 March 2025
Raised again
60 km/h
from 17 March 2025
Where the crashes happened
The blue line is the official Auckland Transport speed-change geometry for this section. Each dot is a crash that CAS places on the treated road; colours show which speed-limit period it fell in. Larger red-ringed dots are crashes in which someone died or was seriously injured.
BeforeDuring lower limitAfter raisedDeath or serious injury
What the monthly record shows
Adjusted for Auckland-wide traffic trends, the observed crash rate was 34% lower while the lower limit applied (compared with before), and 90% higher after the limit went back up (compared with the lower-limit period). Single-road counts are noisy, so read this alongside the pooled estimate on the corridor results page.
Measure
Before (60 mo)
Lower limit (25 mo)
Raised (13 mo)
All crashes
17
5
5
Injury crashes
5
2
2
Death or serious injury crashes
1
0
0
Fatal crashes
1
0
0
Crashes per month
0.28
0.20
0.38
Crashes per million vehicle-days*
0.36
0.23
0.45
*Traffic exposure uses this road’s baseline daily traffic trended by the Auckland-wide TMS fixed-site index.
This road’s own model estimates
A segmented Poisson time-series model fitted to this road alone, with terms for the underlying trend and for level changes at the lowering and the raising. Confidence intervals on a single road are wide; the pooled 24-corridor models are the headline evidence.
All crashes · while lower limit applied
32% more95% CI -86% to +1117% · p = 0.808 · not statistically clear
All crashes · after limit raised
299% more95% CI -65% to +4392% · p = 0.263 · not statistically clear
Injury crashes · while lower limit applied
Too few crashesfor a road-level model; this road still contributes to the pooled estimate
Injury crashes · after limit raised
Too few crashesfor a road-level model; this road still contributes to the pooled estimate
Crash records are complete to 30 April 2026 (later months are still filling in), so the after-raising period is still short. Estimates for this single road will firm up as more months accumulate; the full method, sensitivity checks and audit files are on the main report page.